Tax Revenue Growth Projections From CBO
2011: 3.09%
2012: 14.65%
2013: 20.95%
2014: 11.39%
Deficit Projections from CBO using above Tax Revenue Growth Projections
2011: $1.480 Trillion
2012: $1.100 Trillion
2013: $704 Billion
2014: $533 Billion
Those tax revenue growth projections look pretty high to me, so what happens if we scale back those projections. Rather than 14.65%, 20.95%, and 11.39% growth in 2012 - 2014, we are looking at rates of 5.45% growth (2012), 6.38% growth (2013) and 8.00% growth (2014).
Then, we're looking at deficits like this:
2011: $1.480 Trillion
2012: $1.305 Trillion
2013: $1.294 Trillion
2014: $1.275 Trillion
From the CBO Director's blog, link :
To prevent debt from becoming unsupportable, the Congress will have to substantially restrain the growth of spending, raise revenues significantly above their historical share of GDP, or pursue some combination of those two approaches. The longer the necessary adjustments are delayed, the greater will be the negative consequences of the mounting debt, the more uncertain individuals and businesses will be about future government policies, and the more drastic the ultimate policy changes will need to be. But changes of the magnitude that will ultimately be required could be disruptive. Therefore, Congress may wish to implement them gradually so as to avoid a sudden negative impact on the economy, particularly as it recovers from the severe recession, and so as to give families, businesses, and state and local governments time to plan and adjust. Allowing for such gradual implementation would mean that remedying the nation’s fiscal imbalance would take longer and therefore that major policy changes would need to be enacted soon to limit the further increase in federal debt.
