Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Mortgage Update

Here’s the latest pricing as well as bond market information from today.

Current Mortgage Pricing From Hometown Lending Of Kirkland

30 Yr Fixed

 

5/1 ARM

 

7/1 ARM

 

Rate

Price

Rate

Price

Rate

Price

4.500%

2.000

3.750%

1.000

4.250%

0.875

4.625%

1.500

3.875%

0.625

4.375%

0.500

4.750%

0.750

4.000%

0.250

4.500%

0.125

4.875%

0.000

4.125%

0.000

4.625%

-0.250

5.000%

-0.375

4.250%

-0.375

4.750%

-0.625

15 Yr Fixed

 

10/1 ARM

 

 

 

Rate

Price

Rate

Price

 

 

4.250%

0.000

4.375%

1.125

 

 

4.375%

-0.500

4.500%

0.625

 

 

4.500%

-1.000

4.625%

0.250

 

 

4.625%

-1.250

4.750%

-0.125

 

 

4.750%

-1.750

4.875%

-0.625

 

 

Rates are based on conforming loan guidelines, subject to lender approval.

Bond Expert: Wednesday Wrap

From Seeking Alpha Link

Prices of Treasury coupon securities took a wild ride today as a variety of cross currents buffeted the fixed income market.

Markets opened with a bid on equity market weakness in China and maintained its firm one following an ostensibly weak Durable Goods report.

As the day progressed, the focus of the market shifted to supply in the form of the Treasury auction of $39 billion 5 year notes. I wrote about it extensively earlier. The Reader's Digest version is that the auction result was quite sloppy and the dealer community shot the taxpayers in the big toe with a 5 basis point tail.

The yield on the 2 year note increased 5 basis points to 1.17 percent. The yield on the 3 year note climbed 6 basis points to 1.70 percent. The yield on the 5 year note climbed 5 basis points to 2.65 percent. The yield on the 7 year note is 3 basis points higher at 3.31 percent. The yield on the 10 year note declined 2 basis points to 3.66 percent. And they are as dogs in heat regarding the Long Bond, as its yield tumbled 5 basis points to 4.50 percent.

The 2 year/5 year/30 year spread is 37 basis points. That is more than 10 basis points cheaper than the close of yesterday and represents the lack of interest in the auction.

The 2 year/10 year spread is 249 basis points, which is 7 basis points narrower on the day.

The 10 year/30 year spread is narrower by 2 basis points at 84 basis points.

Expectations regarding future inflation declined today by a tad. The breakeven on 10 year TIPS is 185 basis points today versus 186 basis points yesterday.

The breakeven spread on 30 year TIPS slipped to 228 basis points from 232 basis points yesterday.

10 Year Treasury Note Chart

Earlier in the day, the Open Market Desk intervened in the free market and purchased nearly $3 billion of securities with maturities between 2019 and 2026.

Goldman Sachs (GS) (purportedly a well connected and well informed and powerful bond firm domiciled in lower Manhattan) put out a piece today in which the firm called for higher bond yields.

They suggest that relative to other asset classes, the risk premium built into the Treasury market is too high and should decline to reflect less risky conditions. Here is a relevant excerpt:

  • UST yields have room to rise. Financial conditions have eased significantly over the last month.
  • Risk premium on the UST curve is high relative to other asset classes. As a result, flatteners may be attractive.
  • The strong participation in June’s front-end auctions is likely not the start of a new trend.

I would humbly suggest that it is possible that the Treasury market has the correct story and the other markets are wrong.

The corporate bond market remains firm and there have been no significant changes since I posted on it earlier.

Posted via email from htlkirkland's posterous

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Case-Shiller Index Release

Case-Shiller House Prices for May

Source: Calculated Risk Blogspot

Important Note: Case-Shiller hasn't released the Seasonally Adjusted data yet for May. There is a strong seasonal pattern for prices and this is the NSA data.
S&P/Case-Shiller released their monthly Home Price Indices for May this morning.
This monthly data includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (10 cities and 20 cities). Note: This is not the quarterly national index.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index is off 33.3% from the peak, and up slightly in May.
The Composite 20 index is off 32.3% from the peak, and up slightly in May.
NOTE: This is the NSA data, prices probably fell using the SA data.

The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.
The Composite 10 is off 16.8% over the last year.
The Composite 20 is off 17.1% over the last year.
This is still a very strong YoY decline.
The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Prices increased (NSA) in 14 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in May. In Phoenix, house prices have declined 54.5% from the peak. At the other end of the spectrum, prices in Dallas are only off about 8% from the peak. Prices have declined by double digits almost everywhere.

Case-Shiller Prices Fall in May Seasonally Adjusted

Just a note to the previous post.
Case-Shiller has released the Seasonally Adjusted house price index.
Prices fell slightly in May (compared to April) for the Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes.
Seasonally adjusted, prices fell in 12 of the 20 Case Shiller cities.
There is a strong seasonal pattern to house prices, and it is important to use the SA data. Unfortunately Case-Shiller did not release the SA data earlier this morning. This has lead to numerous incorrect headlines about prices increasing from April to May. That is correct, if they mention the data is Not Seasonally Adjusted.

Case-Shiller House Price Seasonal Adjustment and Comparison to Stress Tests

Case-Shiller released the May house price index this morning, and most news reports focused on the small increase, not seasonally adjusted (NSA), from April to May. As I noted earlier, the seasonally adjusted (SA) data showed a small price decline from April to May.
Case-Shiller reported that prices fell at a 2.5% annual rate in May (SA).
However I think the seasonal factor might be insufficient during the current period.
The following graph shows the month-to-month change of the Case-Shiller index for both the NSA and SA data (annualized). Note that Case-Shiller uses a three-month moving average to smooth the data.

The Blue line is the NSA data. There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.
The red dashed line is the SA data as provided by Case-Shiller.
The seasonal adjustment appears pretty good in the '90s, but it appears insufficient now. I expect that the index will show steeper declines, especially starting in October and November.
The second graph compares the Case-Shiller Composite 10 SA index with the Stress Test scenarios from the Treasury (stress test data is estimated from quarterly forecasts).
NOTE: I'm now using the Seasonally Adjusted (SA) composite 10 series.

The Stress Test scenarios use the Composite 10 index and start in December. Here are the numbers:
Edit correction: All data for May.
Case-Shiller Composite 10 Index, May: 151.13
Stress Test Baseline Scenario, May: 150.85
Stress Test More Adverse Scenario, May: 143.81
So far house prices are tracking the baseline scenario, but I believe the seasonal adjustment is insufficient and prices will decline faster in the Fall.

Posted via email from htlkirkland's posterous

Monday, July 27, 2009

New Home Sales increase in June, Highest since November 2008

From Calculated Risk:

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 384 thousand. This is an increase from the revised rate of 345 thousand in May.

The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted).

Note the Red columns for 2009. This is the 2nd lowest sales for June since the Census Bureau started tracking sales in 1963.

In June 2009, 36 thousand new homes were sold (NSA); the record low was 34 thousand in June 1982; the record high for June was 115 thousand in 2005.

Posted via email from htlkirkland's posterous

Treasury Auction Update

Posted via email from htlkirkland's posterous

Mortgage Update July 27, 2009

Hometown Lending Of Kirkland

877-238-5097

Rates for July 27, 2009

  • Based on a credit score over 740/LTV 80%, 30 day lock
  • Rates are for Purchase or No-cash out refinance
  • Based on Lender Approval

10/1 Libor ARM

4.000%: 2.625 cost

4.250%: 1.875

4.375%: 1.375

4.500%: 0.875

4.625%: 0.500

4.750%: 0.125

4.875%: -0.250 Rebate

7/1 Libor ARM

4.000%: 1.500

4.250%: 0.625

4.375%:  0.25

4.500%: -0.125 Rebate

4.625%: -0.500 Rebate

5/1 Libor ARM

3.750%: 1.000

3.875%: 0.625

4.000%: 0.250

4.125%: -0.125 Rebate

4.250%: -0.500 Rebate

30 Yr Fixed

4.500%: 2.250

4.625%: 1.750

4.750%: 0.875

4.875%: 0.250

5.000%: -0.250 Rebate

FHA  30 Yr Fixed

5.500% - Par

VA  30 Yr Fixed

5.500% - Par

USDA Rural Development – 30 Yr Fixed

5.500% - Par

 

Posted via email from htlkirkland's posterous

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Too cool

Okay…it worked. Very easy…you can simply send an email to post@posterous.com once you’ve got everything set up, and it simultaneously posts to Twitter, Facebook, Myspace, etc…whichever social networking sites you direct the comments to go to. Very easy. The Website is posterous.com

Dan Mellis

Hometown Lending

div of TMBG, Inc

9757 NE Juanita Dr. Suite 119

Kirkland, WA 98034

Toll Free: 877-238-5097

Office: 425-605-0948

Cell: 425-260-5562

Fax: 425-484-6559

Lic: 510-LO-34535

Website: www.htlkirkland.com

Email: dan.mellis@htlkirkland.com

"Life is putting Prozac to the test." - Tony Soprano

Posted via email from htlkirkland's posterous

Posterous Test Post

Hello Everyone,

I’m making a test post from the posterous.com website, we’ll see if this works.

Supposedly, it will simultaneously post to Facebook, Twitter, and my blog at Mortgage Strategery. Here goes.

Dan Mellis

Hometown Lending

div of TMBG, Inc

9757 NE Juanita Dr. Suite 119

Kirkland, WA 98034

Toll Free: 877-238-5097

Office: 425-605-0948

Cell: 425-260-5562

Fax: 425-484-6559

Lic: 510-LO-34535

Website: www.htlkirkland.com

Email: dan.mellis@htlkirkland.com

"Life is putting Prozac to the test." - Tony Soprano

Posted via email from htlkirkland's posterous