Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Employment For Last Four Recoveries


Using the Household Survey of Total Civilian Employment.

Link: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CE16OV/downloaddata?cid=12

I've set the baseline as the official month of recovery established by the NBER. The most recent monthly data currently gives us 23 months since the recovery began. Here are the cumulative employment gains (losses) at the 23 month mark for the 1982 Recovery, the 1991 Recovery, the 2001 Recovery, and the 2009 Recovery, as reported by the BLS Household Survey:

1982 Recovery: 6,526,000
1991 Recovery: 1,623,000
2001 Recovery: 1,746,000
2009 Recovery: -199,000

Now, let's take this one small step further...we have the cumulative totals for the first 23 months above, but let's then look at the 24th month in isolation, and compare it with the most recent month's data for this recovery:

1982 Recovery 24th month: +334,000
1991 Recovery 24th month: +267,000
2001 Recovery 24th month: +440,000
2009 Recovery 23rd month (latest data): +105,000

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