A very brief technical snapshot of the 10 yr Treasury index.
Technical Picture: 10 Yr Treasury Index
Comments: June 9, 2011 low in interest rates was accompanied by a momentum divergence in the rsi (higher momentum low with lower price low) indicating at least a short term bottoming pattern in interest rates. Assuming that the market is now in a counter-trend rally from the April 8 short term high in interest rates…200 day Moving Average at 3.10%...50 day Moving Average at 3.23%...basically looking for a very modest increase in rates through the end of June, with the obvious targets in the 3.23% range.
Profile of March 16 to April 8 increase in interest rates
Low in rate: 3.14%
High in rate: 3.62%
Increase of 48 bps
Total number of trading days: 17
Current Profile:
Low in rate: 2.91%
Date of low in rate: June 9, 2011
17 days from June 9: July 5
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